Membrane technology embedded into IGCC plants with CO2 capture: An economic performance evaluation under uncertainty

An economic performance assessment framework has been developed for membrane reactor modules embedded into Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants with CO2 capture (IGCC-MR), recognizing that such an option offers a promising prospect of significant environmental performance enhancement as well as a technical pathway for the co-production of electricity and hydrogen. A functional Net Present Value (NPV) model has been developed first to evaluate the economic viability of IGCC-MR plants. The project value of IGCC-MR is compared to other competing technology options such as Supercritical Pulverized Coal-fired and traditional IGCC power plants with and without CO2 capture. Sources of irreducible uncertainty (market and regulatory) as well as technology risks are explicitly recognized and the effect of these uncertainty drivers on the plant's/project's value is taken into account using Monte-Carlo techniques. Therefore, more realistic distribution profiles of the plant's economic performance outcomes are generated rather than single-point value estimates. It is shown that future regulatory action on CO2 emissions could induce appealing NPV-distribution profiles for IGCC-MR in the presence of uncertainty and technology risks. Finally, a creatively structured portfolio of technology-push and/or market-pull policy incentives could lead to more attractive profiles, suggesting possible means for accelerating the realization of demonstration projects.