Modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in Africa

Data on waste management in Africa are poor. There is uncertainty over the quantity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste management, notably from waste disposal. Data have been collected on solid waste management for territories in Africa and a multi-phase first order decay (FOD) model has been prepared to calculate GHG emissions from waste disposal in accordance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance. The multi-phase FOD model calculates the GHG emissions from waste disposal as 8.1% of the total GHG emissions in Africa in 2010. This is similar to the last published figure of 6.8% for 2004 data but considerably more than the world average figure of 3% GHG emissions from landfill. Probability modelling of the data used to calculate the multi-phase FOD model demonstrates that the data are variable, with a high standard deviation. The GHG emission rate from waste disposal in African territories will increase leading to further climate change as the population increases and becomes more urbanised. Whilst the UNFCCC is dedicated to minimise climate change globally, this paper demonstrates the need for the creation, at the African level, of a waste management body to assess the situation country by country with the objective to elaborate country specific recommendations for waste management.

► A comprehensive prediction model for GHG emissions from waste disposal is proposed as decision-making tool for municipalities in Africa.
► This multi-phase model calculates a baseline scenario of 0.064 t CO2 per capita for Africa, which equates to 2.8% of the world ceiling target to control climate change.
► A detailed @RISK analysis highlights/prioritises the most sensitive issues that should be targeted to effectively reduce GHG from waste.
► The proposed model is applicable to other developing countries where data on GHG associated with waste management is lacking.