Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic Hubbert Model

• Applies a multi-cycle Hubbert variant to OPEC’s oil production, this approach better depicted the case of oil production.
• Pipelines expansion and institutional and regulation changes explain this multi-cycle.
• Results show OPEC peak oil in 2028 at a production rate of 18.85 Gb/year and ultimate reserves of 1271.24 Gb.

In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in oil production. In this paper, a predictive model based on a variant of the multi-cyclic Hubbert approach is applied to forecast future trend in OPEC oil production. Moreover, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve for OPEC oil production. The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven which allows a continuous updating once new data are available. The results of the analysis for 12 major oil producing countries suggest that OPEC ultimate recoverable resource would be as much as 1271 Gb. OPEC holds about 72/6% of the world crude oil reserves. Our study also indicates that OPEC crude oil production peak will occur in 2028 at a production rate of 18.85 Gb/Year.