Comprehensive risk evaluation of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines using a fuzzy Petri net model

• Fuzzy Petri net is used to evaluate risk of long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines.
• The method based on fuzzy Petri net can describe the propagation of fault and represent the characteristics of the system.
• Combining with AHP and cloud model methods, the relevant parameters have been modified to meet the precision.

Pipeline transportation is a safe and reliable way for transporting dangerous and flammable substances, such as oil and gas. In the process of transportation, third-party damage, corrosion destruction, design flaws, misuse of factors and other risk factors can also cause leakage or rupture of pipelines, which has a serious influence on social security and environment. In this paper, a comprehensive risk evaluation method based on a fuzzy Petri net (FPN) model for long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines is proposed. In the process of the fuzzy reasoning, to tackle the impact of subjective factors and objective factors, the related parameters are optimized. In terms of risk factors weights, the combination weighting method is proposed, which combines AHP model and EM model. To reflect the fuzziness and randomness of risk factors, apply the cloud model to calculate the initial degrees of membership of the risk factors under the different risk grades. Furthermore, the risk evaluation values can be modified via the credibility. It is verified that the risk evaluation method based on the FPN model applies for the long-distance oil and gas transportation pipelines and provides some decision support for the risk management of the oil and gas pipelines.