Modelling and observing Jovian electron propagation times in the inner heliosphere

The propagation of Jovian electrons in interplanetary space was modelled by solving the relevant transport equation numerically through the use of stochastic differential equations. This approach allows us to calculate, for the first time, the propagation time of Jovian electrons from the Jovian magnetosphere to Earth. Using observed quiet-time increases of electron intensities at Earth, we also derive values for this quantity. Comparing the modelled and observed propagation times we can gauge the magnitude of the transport parameters sufficiently to place a limit on the 6 MeV Jovian electron flux reaching Earth. We also investigate how the modelled propagation time, and corresponding Jovian electron flux, varies with the well-known ∼13 month periodicity in the magnetic connectivity of Earth and Jupiter. The results show that the Jovian electron intensity varies by a factor of ∼10 during this cycle of magnetic connectivity.

► The propagation time of Jovian electrons in the inner heliosphere is modelled.
► The model is compared to observationally derived values thereof.
► We can predict the electron flux at Earth using propagation times.