Process Noise: An Explanation for the Fluctuations in the Immune Response during Acute Viral Infection

The parameters of the immune response dynamics are usually estimated by the use of deterministic ordinary differential equations that relate data trends to parameter values. Since the physical basis of the response is stochastic, we are investigating the intensity of the data fluctuations resulting from the intrinsic response stochasticity, the so-called process noise. Dealing with the CD8+ T-cell responses of virus-infected mice, we find that the process noise influence cannot be neglected and we propose a parameter estimation approach that includes the process noise stochastic fluctuations. We show that the variations in data can be explained completely by the process noise. This explanation is an alternative to the one resulting from standard modeling approaches which say that the difference among individual immune responses is the consequence of the difference in parameter values.