Climate change feedbacks to microbial decomposition in boreal soils

Boreal ecosystems store 10–20 % of global soil carbon and may warm by 4–7 °C over the next century. Higher temperatures could increase the activity of boreal decomposers and indirectly affect decomposition through other ecosystem feedbacks. For example, permafrost melting will likely alleviate constraints on microbial decomposition and lead to greater soil CO2 emissions. However, wet boreal ecosystems underlain by permafrost are often CH4 sources, and permafrost thaw could ultimately result in drier soils that consume CH4, thereby offsetting some of the greenhouse warming potential of soil CO2 emissions. Climate change is also likely to increase winter precipitation and snow depth in boreal regions, which may stimulate decomposition by moderating soil temperatures under the snowpack. As temperatures and evapotranspiration increase in the boreal zone, fires may become more frequent, leading to additional permafrost loss from burned ecosystems. Although post-fire decomposition could also increase due to higher soil temperatures, reductions in microbial biomass and activity may attenuate this response. Other feedbacks such as soil drying, increased nutrient mineralization, and plant species shifts are either weak or uncertain. We conclude that strong positive feedbacks to decomposition will likely depend on permafrost thaw, and that climate feedbacks will probably be weak or negative in boreal ecosystems without permafrost. However, warming manipulations should be conducted in a broader range of boreal systems to validate these predictions.