Evaluation and predictive modeling of shelf life of minced beef stored in high-oxygen modified atmosphere packaging at different temperatures

The aims were: (1) to follow the freshness decay of minced beef stored in high-oxygen modified atmosphere packaging at different temperatures (4.3, 8.1 and 15.5 °C) by applying traditional methods (microbiological counts, color evaluation, thiobarbituric acid assay TBA, headspace gas composition) and e-nose; (2) to model the decay kinetics to obtain information about the maximum shelf life as function of storage conditions. The minced beef, packaged in modified atmosphere was supplied by a manufacturer at the beginning of its commercial life. The study demonstrated the ability of the traditional methods to describe the kinetics of freshness decay. The modeling of the experimental data and the comparison with microbiological or chemical thresholds allowed the setting, for each index, of a stability time above which the meat was no longer acceptable. The quality decay of meat was also evaluated by the headspace fingerprint of the same set of samples by means of a commercial e-nose. A clear discrimination between “fresh” and “old” samples was obtained using PCA and CA, determining at each temperature a specific range of stability time. The mean value of the stability times calculated for each index was 9 days at 4.3 °C (recommended storage temperature), 3–4 days at 8.1 °C (usual temperature in household refrigerators) and 2 days at 15.5 °C (abuse temperature). Resolution of the stability times allowed calculation of mean Q10 values, i.e. the increase in rate for a 10 °C increase in temperature.The results show that the Q10 values from the traditional methods (3.6–4.0 range) overlapped with those estimated with e-nose and color indexes (3.4 and 3.9, respectively).