کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
2452816 1110054 2011 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Cartographical analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation and computer modeling of the basic reproduction ratio
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک علوم دامی و جانورشناسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Cartographical analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation and computer modeling of the basic reproduction ratio
چکیده انگلیسی

African swine fever (ASF), have been introduced into the Russian Federation from Transcaucasia countries, has spread widely across the territory of the southern region of Russia since 2008. In this work we present an analysis of the spatial and temporal spread of the disease, determine risk factors by means of GIS tools and model the dynamics of the epidemic process both within infected premises (farms) and at the between-farm level to estimate the basic reproduction ratio R0. The analysis allowed us to make a conclusion about the anthropogenic nature of the risk factors for disease spread. The major significant risk factors identified were: density of the road network, density of domestic swine population and density of water bodies in the study area. The basic reproduction ratio was estimated to range from 2 to 3 at the between-farm level and from 8 to 11 within the infected farms. These initial studies of the ASF epidemic provide information on which to based control and prevention programs.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Volume 102, Issue 3, 1 December 2011, Pages 167–174
نویسندگان
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