The range of influence between cattle herds is of importance for the local spread of Salmonella Dublin in Denmark

The objective of the study was to estimate the range of influence between cattle herds with positive Salmonella Dublin herd status. Herd status was a binary outcome of high/low antibody levels to Salmonella Dublin in bulk-tank milk and blood samples collected from all cattle herds in Denmark for surveillance purposes. Two methods were used. Initially, a spatial generalised linear mixed model was developed with an exponential correlation function to estimate the range of influence simultaneously with the effect of potential risk factors. An iteratively reweighted generalised least squares procedure was used as a second method for verifying the range of influence estimates. With this iterative procedure, deviance residuals were calculated based on a generalised linear model and the range of influence was estimated based on the residuals using an exponential semivariogram. The range of influence was estimated for six different regions in Denmark using both methods. The analyses were performed on data collected during 1 year after initiation of the Salmonella Dublin surveillance program providing herd classifications for the 4th year-quarter of 2003 and 2 years later for the 4th year-quarter of 2005. The prevalence of dairy herds with a positive Salmonella Dublin herd classification status in this period had decreased from 22.1 to 17.0%. In non-dairy herds, the prevalence was nearly unchanged during the same period (3.4 and 3.7% in 4th quarter of 2003 and 2005, respectively). For all cattle herds, the range of influence was 2.3–6.4 km in 2003 and 1.5–8.3 km in 2005. There seemed to be no association between the range of influence and the density of herds in the different regions.