Has Beef Quality Grade Declined?

The objectives of this review were to quantify historical trends in Choice and Select beef supply based on annual output of federally inspected product and to explore short-term demand structures for Choice and Select boxed beef. Data (1938 to 2005) were acquired from USDA for kilograms of federally graded Choice, Select, and inspected beef. Data were analyzed as a time series using a regression model including linear, quadratic, and cubic effects of time. Additionally, daily supply and demand data for boxed beef price were recorded and aggregated into weekly averages, and elasticity estimates were calculated. There was a quadratic effect (P < 0.01) of time on amount of Choice beef produced over the entire time span; output increased at a decreasing rate. There was no effect (P = 0.18) of time on Choice output from 1997 to 2005; product output remained consistent. Over the entire time span there was a cubic effect (P < 0.01) of time on amount of Good-Select beef produced, resulting from relatively stable product volume from 1938 to 1986, followed by rapid escalation until 2000, followed by another period of stability. Short-run, Choice elasticity (−0.39) suggests limited change in weekly demand for Choice product at any price level. Price change has a relatively greater impact on Select beef demand (−0.90). Increases in Select beef output have resulted from increases in beef presented for grading. Recent stabilization in slaughter mix may suggest an optimum is being approached.