Mathematical models to assess strategies for the control of gastrointestinal roundworms in cattle: 2. Validation

A computer model of the population biology of Ostertagia ostertagi in young cattle and the effect of the parasite on animal growth has been constructed. It was validated against results from field trials where worm populations and rate of growth of cattle treated with anthelmintics were compared to similar groups of untreated animals. A close correlation between observed and predicted values for faecal egg and pasture larval counts was seen in the cattle which had been treated with an oxfendazole pulse release bolus at turnout. Timings and peak values were less accurately predicted in the untreated cattle. Although predictions for live weight gain during the grazing season indicated that the model may be overestimating the potential growth rate of cattle, it is considered that the model provides a suitable tool for comparing the effectiveness of different worming programmes under farm conditions. The computer simulation also allowed examination of the underlying influences and interactions between parasitological factors, such as numbers of immature and adult worms, and animal and pasture factors, such as sward height, grass consumption and feed conversion, in the parasite's influence on animal performance.