A deterministic-probabilistic system for predicting forest fire hazard

The work presents an accurate set of physical and mathematical models that can be used for predicting forest and steppe fire hazards for which all known reasons for ignition of natural fires are taken into account. A retrospective analysis of ignitions has been carried out within the period 2000–2004 for the area managed by the forestry enterprise of Timiryazevskiy in the Tomsk region of the Russian Federation. Specific meteorological conditions and anthropogenic pressure have been included in the analysis. The results show that the new methodology for predicting forest fire hazards specifies the date of forest fire ignition more accurately than GOST Р 22.1.09–99, which is the forest fire hazard system currently used in Russia.