The cumulative stress hazard density as an alternative to the Weibull model

A simple, easily reproduced experiment based on artificial flaws has been proposed which demonstrates that the distribution of the minimum failure load does not necessarily follow a Weibull distribution. The experimental result presented in the paper clearly indicates that the Weibull distribution with its strictly increasing function, is incapable of approximating a constant probability of failure over a loading region.New fundamental concepts have been introduced referred to as ‘hazard stress density’ and ‘cumulative hazard stress density’. These concepts helped derive an equation giving the probability of failure without making use of the notions ‘flaws’ and ‘locally initiated failure by flaws’. As a result, the derived equation is more general than earlier models. The cumulative hazard stress density is an important fingerprint of materials and can be used for determining the reliability of loaded components. It leaves materials to ‘speak for themselves’ by not imposing a power law dependence on the variation of the critical flaws which is always the case if the Weibull model is used.An important link with earlier models has also been established. We show that the cumulative hazard stress density is numerically equal to the product of the number density of the flaws with a potential to cause failure and the probability that a flaw will be critical at the specified loading stress.We show that, predictions of the probability of failure from tests related to a small gauge length to a large gauge length are associated with large errors which increase in proportion with the ratio of the gauge lengths. Large gauge length ratios amplify the inevitable errors in the probability of failure associated with the small gauge length to a level which renders the predicted probability for failure of the large gauge length meaningless.Finally, a general integral has been derived, giving the reliability associated with time interval and random loading of a material with flaws. The integral has been validated by a Monte Carlo simulation.