Nest temperatures in a loggerhead nesting beach in Turkey is more determined by sea surface than air temperature

• We modelled loggerhead marine turtle nest temperatures using performant statistics.
• Sea surface temperature influenced nest temperature four times more than air temperature.
• Metabolic heating increases nest temperature by 4.67 °C at the end of incubation.
• The model predicts nest temperature well based on sea surface and air temperatures.

While climate change is now fully recognised as a reality, its impact on biodiversity is still not completely understood. To predict its impact, proxies coherent with the studied ecosystem or species are thus required. Marine turtles are threatened worldwide (though some populations are recovering) as they are particularly sensitive to temperature throughout their entire life cycle. This is especially true at the embryo stage when temperature affects both growth rates and sex determination. Nest temperature is thus of prime importance to understand the persistence of populations in the context of climate change. We analysed the nest temperature of 21 loggerheads (Caretta caretta) originating from Dalyan Beach in Turkey using day-lagged generalised mixed models with autocorrelation. Surprisingly, the selected model for nest temperature includes an effect for sea surface temperature 4-times higher than for air temperature. We also detected a very significant effect of metabolic heating during development compatible with what is already known about marine turtle nests. Our new methodology allows the prediction of marine turtle nest temperatures with good precision based on a combination of air temperature measured at beach level and sea surface temperature in front of the beach. These data are available in public databases for most of the beaches worldwide.