Vision 2023: Feasibility analysis of Turkey's renewable energy projection

Electricity consumption of Turkey at the year 2023 is estimated to be around 530,000 GWh. Turkey plans to supply 30% or 160,000 GWh of this demand from renewable energy sources according to the recently avowed government agenda Vision 2023. However, the current installed renewable energy capacity is around 60,000 GWh. Detailed literature analysis showed that only wind and solar energy potential in Turkey can solely supply this demand. In this study, two different scenarios were generated to analyse the cost and environmental impacts of supplying this demand. Scenario 1, which is derived from the official Vision 2023 targets, suggests supplying this demand from wind, solar, geothermal energy and hydropower. The total projected cost based on Scenario 1 is estimated to be $31.000 billion and annual greenhouse gas emissions of 1.05 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. According to Scenario 2 or the contrary setup it is assumed that the required demand gap could not be supplied from new renewable energy investments but equally from coal and natural gas. The projected cost is estimated to be around $8.000 billion and annual greenhouse gas emissions at appalling 71.30 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Assuming carbon tax at the year 2023 to be $50 per tonne of CO2 emitted, supplying the demand from renewable energy sources according to Scenario 1 would generate savings worth nearly $2.175 billion from environmental taxes annually. Thus, making the payback time of the renewable energy investments less than 15 years.

► Turkey's electricity demand in 2023 is estimated 530,000 GWh.
► Scenario 1 renewable, Scenario 2 fossil based supply 30% Turkey's electricity in 2023.
► Scenario 1: $31.000 billion investment, 1.05 million tonnes of CO2 emission annually.
► Scenario 2: $8.000 billion investment, 44.50 million tonnes of CO2 emission annually.
► Scenario 1: $2.175 billion savings via carbon taxes annually, payback time <15 years.