Collision course? The North Airfield Safety Study at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)

• We describe a study whose primary aim was to estimate the level of future safety of several geometrical configurations of the LAX North Airfield.
• Unlike previous studies, we estimate the absolute level of passenger mortality risk from runway collisions rather than the relative risk.
• The study combined historical data from LAX and other airports with a human-in-the-loop simulation at NASA Ames Research Center.
• We find the collision risk of the present configuration of the North Airfield to be very low and that changes to it could reduce the risk by about 50%.
• Since, however, the baseline risk is so low we conclude that the safety case for reconfiguring the North Airfield is not compelling.

The LAX North Airfield Safety Study was undertaken by an Academic Panel consisting of the present authors, and was based in large part on a simulation that was conducted at FutureFlight Central at NASA Ames Research Center. The primary aim of the study was “to estimate as specifically as possible the level of future safety associated with several geometrical configurations of the LAX North Airfield.” This paper describes the study, and how it combined information from human-in-the-loop simulations at NASA with historical data from LAX and other US airports about runway incursions and collisions. The analysis indicated that, even under its existing physical layout, LAX North would experience very low risk of runway collisions at traffic levels projected for 2020. That risk could be reduced by about half if the North Airfield runways were reconfigured, and some reconfigurations would also add appreciably to the operational efficiency of the airport. But because the “baseline” level of risk is so low, the Study concluded that “it would be difficult to construct a compelling case on safety grounds alone for reconfiguring the North Airfield.”