کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
310455 533140 2012 19 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The effect of the price of gasoline on the urban economy: From route choice to general equilibrium
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی عمران و سازه
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The effect of the price of gasoline on the urban economy: From route choice to general equilibrium
چکیده انگلیسی

RELU-TRAN2, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chicago MSA is used to understand how gasoline use, car-VMT, on-the-road fuel intensity, trips and location patterns, housing, labor and product markets respond to a gas price increase. We find a long-run elasticity of gasoline demand (with congestion endogenous) of −0.081, keeping constant car prices and the TFI (technological fuel intensity) of car types but allowing consumers to choose from car types. 43% of this long run elasticity is from switching to transit; 15% from trip, car-type and location choice; 38% from price, wage and rent equilibration, and 4% from building stock changes. 79% of the long run elasticity is from changes in car-VMT (the extensive margin) and 21% from savings in gasoline per mile (the intensive margin); with 83% of this intensive margin from changes in congestion and 17% from the substitution in favor of lower TFI. An exogenous trend-line improvement of the TFI of the car-types available for choice raises the long-run response to a percent increase in the gas price from −0.081 to −0.251. Thus, only 1/3 of the long-run response to the gas price stems from consumer choices and 2/3 from progress in fuel intensity. From 2000 to 2007, real gas prices rose 53.7%, the average car fuel intensity improved 2.7% and car prices fell 20%. The model predicts that from these changes alone, keeping constant population, income, etc. aggregate gasoline use in this period would have fallen by 5.2%.


► Effects of gasoline price on urban travel and structure in a CGE model.
► Decomposing price elasticity of gas by VMT, GPM and adjustment to equilibrium.
► Effects of congestion and fuel intensity on the price elasticity of gasoline.
► Extensive (VMT) and intensive (GPM) margins in gasoline consumption.
► Rebound effects due to congestion and car fuel intensity.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice - Volume 46, Issue 6, July 2012, Pages 855–873
نویسندگان
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