Assessing predation in airline markets with low-fare competition

Assessment of unfair competitive practices in airline markets has traditionally been based on the analysis of changes in average fares, revenue and traffic following low-fare entry. This paper demonstrates the severe limitations of using such measures. In particular, our case studies show that despite very different perceptions by some analysts of apparent incumbent carrier response to entry, average fares, revenues and traffic measures showed very similar patterns of change. We then use a competitive airline market simulation to illustrate the importance of often ignored factors – revenue management and the flows of connecting network passengers on the flight legs affected by low-fare entry – in explaining the effects of entry on these aggregate measures of airline performance. These simulation results further reinforce the danger in using such measures as indicators of predatory behavior in airline markets.