Analysis of mode choice variables in short-distance intermodal freight transport using an agent-based model

• Successful short-distance intermodality reveals untapped market opportunities.
• Role of distance in mode choice is largely ignored in the literature.
• A new agent-based model to simulate freight transport services is presented.
• Mainstream mode choice variables do not explain successful short-distance intermodality.
• Intermodality-oriented policy options should be revised to include short distances.

Medium to long-distance intermodal transport has been strongly promoted by the European Commission and national governments as a solution for ensuring the sustainability of the freight transport sector. However, so far, intermodal transport has revealed limited capacity for competing against road transport. New solutions aimed at expanding the limits of its competitiveness are needed. Some successful cases of short-distance intermodal transport reveal untapped market opportunities.The literature on mode choice fails to explain these successes. The research has focused mainly on long-distance services, and the findings are not necessarily transferable to the short-distance transport. This paper presents the results of research aimed at testing this assumption.A new agent-based model to simulate the transport operations and behavioural reactions of transport agents was developed, applying mode choice variables that are consensually referred to as pivotal in the mode choice process: price, transit time, reliability and flexibility. The use of the model was to ascertain the performance of competing transport modes (intermodal and road) under different demand scenarios.Applications of the model to a short-distance transport service show that only price could explain the Freight Forwarder choice for intermodality. The evidence produced by this research suggests that the mode choice process for short-distance transport services may be governed by other decision variables and that current intermodality-oriented policy options should be revised, as they exclude a potential market segment.