Early Prediction of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis Using Infrared Spectroscopy of Serum

Background: One of the main problems in the management of acute pancreatitis (AP) is the scarcity of accurate predictors of disease severity. Methods: In a prospective design, we compared APACHE II score, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, and infrared (IR) spectral absorption of serum (wavelength 940 nm) in 167 consecutive patients with AP, 34 with predicted severe and 133 with mild form. Results: The IR spectral absorption levels on admission and at 24 h after admission were significantly (p< 0.05) lower in patients with severe AP. On admission, the sensitivity was 74, 56, and 44%; the specificity was 82, 83, and 81%; the positive predictive value was 51, 45, and 37%, and the negative predictive value was 92, 88, and 85%, for IR spectroscopy, APACHE II, and CRP, respectively. At 24 h, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value was 82, 74, 44, and 94%; 65, 72, 37, and 89%; 68, 73, 39, and 90%, for IR spectroscopy, CRP, and APACHE II, respectively. Conclusions: IR spectroscopy seems to be useful for early detection of severe AP and, in turn, for identifying patients requiring treatment in the intensive care unit and who can benefit from novel therapies.