Intuition and analytic processes in probabilistic reasoning: The role of time pressure

• We investigate analytic and intuitive reasoning in a probability-judgment task.
• High school and university students performed the task with and without time pressure.
• Intelligence predicts performance for an easy problem regardless of time pressure.
• Numeracy and cognitive reflection predict performance only under time pressure.
• Intuitive reasoning contributes to performance in hard fast-paced probability tasks.

Dual-process theories distinguish between human reasoning that relies on fast, intuitive processing and reasoning via cognitively demanding, slower analytic processing. Fuzzy-trace theory, in contrast, holds that intuitive processes are at the apex of cognitive development and emphasizes successes of intuitive reasoning. We address the role of intuition by manipulating time pressure in a probabilistic reasoning task. This task can be correctly solved by slow algorithmic processes, but requiring a quick response should encourage the use of fast intuitive processes. Adolescents and undergraduates completed three problems in which they compared a small-numbered ratio (which was always 9-in-10) to a large-numbered ratio that varied: a) 85-in-95 (smaller than 9-in-10); b) 90-in-100 (equal to 9-in-10); and c) 95-in-105 (larger than 9-in-10). Surprisingly, time pressure did not affect performance. Intelligence, cognitive reflection, and numeracy were correlated with performance, but only under time pressure. Advanced reasoning processes can be fast, intuitive, and contribute to cognitive abilities, in accordance with fuzzy-trace theory.