A framework for uncertainty quantification and economic dispatch model with wind–solar energy

• The joint probabilistic model considering combinations of wind, solar and load is proposed.
• The load shed risks under different operational scenario are defined and described by methodology of α-superquantile.
• An economic dispatch model considering unit commitment is established.
• The relation between the contents of total cost and confidence level is studied.
• The correctness and effectiveness of the proposed methodology is very high.

More and more renewable energy generations are being connected to power system, such as wind power, solar power, together with the load forecasting deviation, so there is a growing need to study impacts of multiple different uncertainties on system. It is important that operators understand how these stochastic characteristics of uncertainties affect the stable operation of power system. In this paper, the combinations of uncertainties that are power fluctuation due to forecasting deviation of wind speed, solar radiation and load. Framework is established including joint probabilistic models of several uncertainties and the risk models of load shed under two different scenarios. An economic dispatch model considering unit commitment is proposed to minimize the generation cost and operational cost and starting-up cost of conventional power units, combined heat and power (CHP) units and heat-only units. However, high/low risk of load shed does not represent large/small of load loss in fact, thus the load loss is defined as multiplying of load shed risk and load loss amount, which is described by methodology of α-superquantile. Effectiveness of proposed model is examined by case studies and the numerical results are presented.