Validity of downscaled climate models and the implications of possible future climate change for Lake Kariba's Kapenta fishery

► All validated models reflected Kariba's past climate (1961-2009) well. ► Models project a drier future climate and decrease in rainfall ranging from 3% to 27.46%. ► Models predict increased future temperatures ranging from 3.17 °C to 3.42 °C. ► This could mean that Kapenta fish production could continue to decline in the future.