Using GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression to predict the probabilities of human-caused grassland fires

The probability of a grid cell ignition was positively correlated with temperature, and elevation; and negatively correlated with precipitation, relative humidity and distances to villages, dirt roads, railroads and isolated buildings. Grid cells were grouped into five classes of ignition probabilities, i.e. <0.2, 0.2-0.4, 0.4-0.6, 0.6-0.8 and >0.8. These methods and results should be useful to local administrative managers in assessing initial ignition risk for grassland.