A two reservoir model to predict Escherichia coli losses to water from pastures grazed by dairy cows

Animal agriculture has been identified as an important source of diffuse faecal microbial pollution of water. Our current understanding of the losses of faecal microbes from grazed pasture systems is however poor. To help synthesise our current knowledge, a simple two reservoir model was constructed to represent the faecal and environmental sources of Escherichia coli found in a grazed pastoral system. The size of the faecal reservoir was modelled on a daily basis with inputs from grazing animals, and losses due to die-off of E. coli and decomposition of the faecal material. Estimates were made of transport coefficients of E. coli losses from the two reservoirs. The concentration of E. coli measured in overland flow and artificial drainage from grazed plots, used for calibration of the model, showed a significant (P < 0.0001) decrease with days since last grazing — up to 120 days. Modelled E. coli runoff concentrations calibrated well with the regression line from the measured data up to 120 days. Variability of E. coli concentrations in the source faecal material could account for the variability in the measured runoff concentrations. Measured E. coli concentrations in artificial drainage water from 120 to 1300 days since last grazing appeared to be greater than the model predicted. The longer term data clearly illustrated the need for an environmental reservoir of E. coli in models of grazed pasture systems. Research is needed to understand the behaviour and impact of this environmental reservoir. Scenario analysis using the model indicated that rather than manipulating the faecal material itself post defecation, mitigation options should focus on manipulating grazing management.

► A simple two reservoir model was constructed to represent a grazed pastoral system.
► The model output appeared similar to the regression lines from the measured data.
► Variability in the faecal source can explain the variability measured in runoff.
► The long term data illustrated the need for an environmental reservoir of E. coli.
► Research is needed to better understand the environmental reservoir of E. coli.