Using air quality modeling to study source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides emissions and ozone exposures over the United States

Human exposure to ambient ozone (O3) has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects. The ozone level at a location is contributed by local production, regional transport, and background ozone. This study combines detailed emission inventory, air quality modeling, and census data to investigate the source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions and population exposure to ambient O3 in 48 states over the continental United States. By removing NOx emissions from each state one at a time, we calculate the change in O3 exposures by examining the difference between the base and the sensitivity simulations. Based on the 49 simulations, we construct state-level and census region-level source–receptor matrices describing the relationships among these states/regions. We find that, for 43 receptor states, cumulative NOx emissions from upwind states contribute more to O3 exposures than the state's own emissions. In-state emissions are responsible for less than 15% of O3 exposures in 90% of U.S. states. A state's NOx emissions can influence 2 to 40 downwind states by at least a 0.1 ppbv change in population-averaged O3 exposure. The results suggest that the U.S. generally needs a regional strategy to effectively reduce O3 exposures. But the current regional emission control program in the U.S. is a cap-and-trade program that assumes the marginal damage of every ton of NOx is equal. In this study, the average O3 exposures caused by one ton of NOx emissions ranges from − 2.0 to 2.3 ppm-people-hours depending on the state. The actual damage caused by one ton of NOx emissions varies considerably over space.