Reconciling models and measurements to assess trends in atmospheric mercury deposition

Changes in atmospheric mercury deposition are used to evaluate the effectiveness of regulations controlling emissions. This analysis can be complicated by seemingly incongruent data from different model runs, model types, and field measurements. Here we present a case study example that describes how to identify trends in regional scale mercury deposition using best-available information from multiple data sources. To do this, we use data from three atmospheric chemistry models (CMAQ, GEOS-Chem, HYSPLIT) and multiple sediment archives (ombrotrophic bog, headwater lake, coastal salt marsh) from the Bay of Fundy region in Canada. Combined sediment and modeling data indicate that deposition attributable to US and Canadian emissions has declined in recent years, thereby increasing the relative significance of global sources. We estimate that anthropogenic emissions in the US and Canada account for 28–33% of contemporary atmospheric deposition in this region, with the rest from natural (14–32%) and global sources (41–53%).