Climate sensitivity of allergenic taxa in Central Europe associated with new climate change related forces

The aim of the study was to analyse trends of the pollen season with its duration, start and end dates, as well as trends of the annual total pollen count and annual peak pollen concentration for the Szeged agglomeration in Southern Hungary. The data set covered an 11-year period (1997–2007) that included eight taxa and seven daily climate variables. Trend analysis was performed on both annual and daily bases. Trend analysis on a daily basis is a new approach that provides information on the annual cycles of the trends. To quantify the strength of the relationship between the annual cycle of the slope of a pollen concentration trend and the annual cycles of the slopes of the climate variable trends, an association measure and a multiple association measure are introduced. Individual taxa were sorted into three categories according to their climate sensitivities. These were compared with two novel climate change-related forces, namely risk potential and expansion potential due to the climate change. The total annual pollen counts indicated significant trends for 4 taxa and 3 of these 4 trends increased on a daily basis. At the same time, significant changes were detected for the pollen season characteristics of three taxa. The association measures performed well when compared to the climate change-related forces. Significant changes in pollen season characteristics were also in accordance with the risk potential and expansion potential due to the climate change. A novel procedure was applied to separate the effects of the past and current weather conditions that influence the current Ambrosia pollen concentrations. The potential effect of land use changes on pollen release of the given taxa was also discussed using the CORINE Land Cover Database.

► Trend analysis on a daily basis is a new approach providing information on annual cycles of pollen concentration trends.
► A multiple association measure is introduced for quantifying the relationships among the trends of the variables.
► Novel climate change related forces are introduced, namely risk potential and expansion potential due to the climate change.
► A novel procedure separates the effects of the past and current weather conditions in influencing current pollen levels.
► The potential effect of land use changes on pollen release of the taxa is discussed using the CORINE Land Cover Database.