Assessing carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic in farmed smeltfish (Ayu, Plecoglossus altirelis) in aseniasis-endemic area of Taiwan

This study spatially analyzed potential carcinogenic risks associated with ingesting arsenic (As) contents in aquacultural smeltfish (Plecoglossus altirelis) from the Lanyang Plain of northeastern Taiwan. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) was adopted to reproduce As exposure distributions in groundwater based on their three-dimensional variability. A target cancer risk (TR) associated with ingesting As in aquacultural smeltfish was employed to evaluate the potential risk to human health. The probabilistic risk assessment determined by Monte Carlo simulation and SIS is used to propagate properly the uncertainty of parameters. Safe and hazardous aquacultural regions were mapped to elucidate the safety of groundwater use. The TRs determined from the risks at the 95th percentiles exceed one millionth, indicating that ingesting smeltfish that are farmed in the highly As-affected regions represents a potential cancer threat to human health. The 95th percentile of TRs is considered in formulating a strategy for the aquacultural use of groundwater in the preliminary stage.