Health benefit evaluation of the energy use scenarios in Beijing, China

Air pollution is one of the important causal factors for excess cardiorespiratory deaths and diseases. However, little information is available on health gains from clean energy usage in developing countries. In this study the expected population exposed to air pollutants was estimated under the different energy use scenarios by the year 2010, 2020 and 2030, respectively, in the urban area of Beijing, China. The concentration-response functions between air pollutants and the health endpoints were established using meta-analysis and regression models. The decreased cardiorespiratory deaths and diseases of the exposed population were predicted as the health benefits from air pollution reduction. We used daily measurements of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and sulphate dioxide (SO2) as air pollution indicators. The percentage of population exposed to higher level of PM10 will be decreased significantly under the clean energy use scenario than that under the Baseline Scenario (i.e., business-as-usual scenario). Compared with the Baseline Scenario there will be, by 2010, 2020, and 2030, respectively, a decrease of 29–152, 30–212 and 39–287 acute excess deaths; and 340–1811, 356–2529 and 462–3424 chronic excess deaths associated with the reduction of PM10 level; also a decrease of 237–331, 285–371 and 400–554 short-term excess deaths associated with the decrease of SO2 level. Meanwhile, the number of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions, outpatient visits to internal and paediatrics departments, total emergency room visits and asthma attacks will be remarkably reduced with the reduction of air pollution. Energy structure improvement could reduce ambient air pollution and produce substantial health benefits to the population in Beijing. These findings may have significant implications for other metropolitan cities, particularly in developing countries.