An assessment of anthropogenic source impacts on mercury cycling in the Willamette Basin, Oregon, USA

In Oregon's Willamette River Basin (Basin), methylmercury levels in fish triggered health advisories and required development of a mercury Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Willamette River. A seasonally-responsive dynamic systems model is used to identify the principal sources of natural and anthropogenic mercury, the relative contributions of these sources to the river, the impact of hypothetical reductions in specific natural and anthropogenic sources on mercury levels in surface water, sediment, and fish tissue, and the degree to which any such changes would be clearly discernible to environmental managers and Basin stakeholders. Two scenarios are modeled: “PRES”, which considered all currently known natural and anthropogenic mercury sources and “LEEM”, which (hypothetically) eliminated all local, but not global, anthropogenic sources and greatly lowered native soil erosion rates. Elimination of local air emissions reduces runoff of air-deposited mercury by ≈34% and advection from the Basin by ≈12%, while lowering erosion rates reduces particulate runoff by ≈57%, deposition from the water column to surficial sediment by ≈33%, and fluvial load by ≈24%; for a net reduction of 25.6% in the total mercury load to the river. Such hypothetical reductions bring methylmercury concentrations in predatory fish to levels that would allow restoration of fish consumption as a beneficial use. However, several factors, primarily technical feasibility and global sources, may impede attempts to attain this beneficial use. Actualizing the hypothetical 100% elimination of local anthropogenic sources and a > 50% reduction in erosion could pose significant technical challenges. Because local anthropogenic emissions make relatively smaller contributions to the Basin than do persistent global sources (sources over which there is little, if any, possibility of local control), localized environmental management actions alone may not be adequate to address mercury impacts within the Basin.