Chemistry of ash-leachates to monitor volcanic activity: An application to Popocatépetl volcano, central Mexico

Monitoring volcanic activity and assessing volcanic risk in an on-going eruption is a problem that requires the maximum possible independent data to reduce uncertainty. A quick, relatively simple and inexpensive method to follow the development of an eruption and to complement other monitoring parameters is the chemical analysis of ash leachates, particularly in the case of eruptions related to dome emplacement. Here, the systematic analysis of SO42-, Cl− and F− concentrations in ash leachates is proposed as a valuable tool for volcanic activity monitoring. However, some results must be carefully assessed, as is the case for S/Cl ratios, since eruption of hydrothermally altered material may be confused with degassing of incoming magma. Sulfur isotopes help to identify SO4 produced by hydrothermal processes from magmatic SO2. Lower S isotopic values correlated with higher F− percentages represent a better indicator of fresh magmatic influence that may lead to stronger eruptions and emplacement of new lava domes. Additionally, multivariate statistical analysis helps to identify different eruption characteristics, provided that the analyses are made over a long enough time to sample different stages of an eruption.