Correlations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States: Implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change

We applied a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to study the correlations of total PM2.5 and its components with meteorological variables using an 11-year (1998–2008) observational record over the contiguous US. The data were deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale correlations. We find that daily variation in meteorology as described by the MLR can explain up to 50% of PM2.5 variability with temperature, relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and circulation all being important predictors. Temperature is positively correlated with sulfate, organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) almost everywhere. The correlation of nitrate with temperature is negative in the Southeast but positive in California and the Great Plains. RH is positively correlated with sulfate and nitrate, but negatively with OC and EC. Precipitation is strongly negatively correlated with all PM2.5 components. We find that PM2.5 concentrations are on average 2.6 μg m−3 higher on stagnant vs. non-stagnant days. Our observed correlations provide a test for chemical transport models used to simulate the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change. They point to the importance of adequately representing the temperature dependence of agricultural, biogenic and wildfire emissions in these models.