Population exposure and mortality due to regional background PM in Europe – Long-term simulations of source region and shipping contributions

This paper presents the contribution to population exposure (PE) of regional background fine primary (PPM2.5) and secondary inorganic (SIA) particulate matter and its impact on mortality in Europe during 1997–2003 calculated with a chemistry transport model. Contributions to concentrations and PE due to emissions from shipping, Western (WEU), Eastern (EEU), and Northern Europe are compared.WEU contributes about 40% to both PPM2.5 and SIA concentrations, whereas the EEU contribution to PPM2.5 is much higher (43% of total PPM2.5) than to SIA (29% of total SIA). The population weighted average concentration (PWC) of PPM2.5 is a factor of 2.3 higher than average (non-weighted) concentrations, whereas for SIA the PWC is only a factor 1.6 higher. This is due to PPM2.5 concentrations having larger gradients and being relatively high over densely populated areas, whereas SIA is formed outside populated areas. WEU emissions contribute relatively more than EEU to PWC and mortality due to both PPM2.5 and SIA in Europe.The number of premature deaths in Europe is estimated to 301 000 per year due to PPM2.5 exposure and 245 000 due to SIA, despite 3.3 times higher average SIA concentrations. This is due to population weighting and assumed (and uncertain) higher relative risk of mortality for PPM2.5 components (2.8 times higher RR for PPM2.5). This study indicates that it might be more efficient, for the health of the European population, to decrease primary PM emissions (especially in WEU) than to decrease precursors of SIA, but more knowledge on the toxicity of different PM constituents is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.