Wetland change mapping for the U.S. mid-Atlantic region using an outlier detection technique

Although the impacts of wetland loss are often felt at regional scales, effective planning and management require a comparative assessment of local needs, costs, and benefits. Satellite remote sensing can provide spatially explicit, synoptic land cover change information to support such an assessment. However, a common challenge in conventional remote sensing change detection is the difficulty of obtaining phenologically and radiometrically comparable data from the start and end of the time period of interest. An alternative approach is to use a prior land cover classification as a surrogate for historic satellite data and to examine the self-consistency of class spectral reflectances in recent imagery. We produced a 30-meter resolution wetland change probability map for the U.S. mid-Atlantic region by applying an outlier detection technique to a base classification provided by the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI). Outlier-resistant measures – the median and median absolute deviation – were used to represent spectral reflectance characteristics of wetland class populations, and formed the basis for the calculation of a pixel change likelihood index. The individual scene index values were merged into a consistent region-wide map and converted to pixel change probability using a logistic regression calibrated through interpretation of historic and recent aerial photography. The accuracy of a regional change/no-change map produced from the change probabilities was estimated at 89.6%, with a Kappa of 0.779. The change probabilities identify areas for closer inspection of change cause, impact, and mitigation potential. With additional work to resolve confusion resulting from natural spatial heterogeneity and variations in land use, automated updating of NWI maps and estimates of areal rates of wetland change may be possible. We also discuss extensions of the technique to address specific applications such as monitoring marsh degradation due to sea level rise and mapping of invasive species.