کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4463803 1621696 2011 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Changes in storm surges in southern Europe from a regional model under climate change scenarios
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Changes in storm surges in southern Europe from a regional model under climate change scenarios
چکیده انگلیسی

Changes in storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Iberian coasts during the 21st century are explored based on the outputs of a numerical barotropic regional model. Three different climate scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) for the period 2000–2099 together with a control run for 1950–2000 have been simulated forced by greenhouse gases concentrations. A hindcast run for the 20th century (1958–2001) forced with a dynamical downscaling of ERA40 reanalysis has also been performed. Comparisons between hindcast and control run show consistency on their average statistics and their spatial distribution in terms of extreme events. Results for the 21st century reveal that storm surges frequency and magnitude decrease. Changes reach 50% in the number of events and up to 8 cm in the 50-year return levels. The analysis shows a progressive decrease in the return levels not fully explained by a negative trend in the mean atmospherically-induced sea level and a linear dependence with winter NAO. Likewise, negative events show the opposite behavior, with an increase in their frequency and magnitude although smaller than for positive surges.

Research highlights
► Changes in Mediterranean storm surges are investigated using climate projections.
► Storm surge distribution during the 21st century is considered non-stationary.
► Return levels will decrease in frequency (up to 50%) and magnitude (up to 8 cm).

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Global and Planetary Change - Volume 77, Issues 3–4, June 2011, Pages 116–128
نویسندگان
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