Crop yield estimation model for Iowa using remote sensing and surface parameters

Numerous efforts have been made to develop various indices using remote sensing data such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), vegetation condition index (VCI) and temperature condition index (TCI) for mapping and monitoring of drought and assessment of vegetation health and productivity. NDVI, soil moisture, surface temperature and rainfall are valuable sources of information for the estimation and prediction of crop conditions. In the present paper, we have considered NDVI, soil moisture, surface temperature and rainfall data of Iowa state, US, for 19 years for crop yield assessment and prediction using piecewise linear regression method with breakpoint. Crop production environment consists of inherent sources of heterogeneity and their non-linear behavior. A non-linear Quasi-Newton multi-variate optimization method is utilized, which reasonably minimizes inconsistency and errors in yield prediction.Minimization of least square loss function has been carried out through iterative convergence using pre-defined empirical equation that provided acceptable lower residual values with predicted values very close to observed ones (R2 = 0.78) for Corn and Soybean crop (R2 = 0.86) for Iowa state. The crop yield prediction model discussed in the present paper will further improve in future with the use of long period dataset. Similar model can be developed for different crops of other locations.