Regional prediction of long-term landfill gas to energy potential

Quantifying landfill gas to energy (LFGTE) potential as a source of renewable energy is difficult due to the challenges involved in modeling landfill gas (LFG) generation. In this paper a methodology is presented to estimate LFGTE potential on a regional scale over a 25-year timeframe with consideration of modeling uncertainties. The methodology was demonstrated for the US state of Florida, as a case study, and showed that Florida could increase the annual LFGTE production by more than threefold by 2035 through installation of LFGTE facilities at all landfills. The estimated electricity production potential from Florida LFG is equivalent to removing some 70 million vehicles from highways or replacing over 800 million barrels of oil consumption during the 2010–2035 timeframe.Diverting food waste could significantly reduce fugitive LFG emissions, while having minimal effect on the LFGTE potential; whereas, achieving high diversion goals through increased recycling will result in reduced uncollected LFG and significant loss of energy production potential which may be offset by energy savings from material recovery and reuse. Estimates showed that the power density for Florida LFGTE production could reach as high as 10 W m−2 with optimized landfill operation and energy production practices. The environmental benefits from increased lifetime LFG collection efficiencies magnify the value of LFGTE projects.

► A study to estimate LFGTE potential with consideration to model uncertainties.
► The uncertainty in LFGTE estimates can affect the viability of the projects.
► Outcomes can be used for designing LFG collection systems and LFGTE projects.
► Necessary for policy makers, regulators, and investors in renewable energy.