Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure

• Increasing plant disease pressure favours more diverse crop rotations.
• High crop prices may lead to increased crop yields through liming and fungicide use.
• Low prices may lead to monocultures and reduced use of inputs and crop yields.
• The model is suitable for comparative analysis of alternative management options.

Agricultural practice is facing multiple challenges under volatile commodity markets, inevitable climate change, mounting pest pressure and various other environment-related constraints. The objective of this research is to present a dynamic optimization model of crop rotations and farm management and show its suitability for economic analysis over a 30 year time period. In this model, we include management practices such as fertilization, fungicide treatment and liming, and apply it in a region in Southwestern Finland. Results show that (i) growing pest pressure favours the cultivation of wheat-oats and wheat-oilseeds combinations, while (ii) market prices largely determine the crops in the rotation plan and the specific management practices adopted. The flexibility of our model can also be utilized in evaluating the value of other management options such as new cultivars under different projections of future climate and market conditions.