Quantifying production losses due to drought and submergence of rainfed rice at the household level using remotely sensed MODIS data

• In Asia nearly 50% rice farmland area is under rainfed rice ecosystem.
• Drought and submergence are the major limiting factors to rainfed rice production.
• This study quantifies losses in rainfed rice production at the household level.
• Study confirms that the loss can be significant at the household level.
• Adaptive researches are suggested to minimize such losses.

Combining remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data with Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data, this study estimates losses in rainfed rice production at the household level. In particular, we estimated the rice areas affected by drought and submergence from remotely sensed MODIS data and rice production from Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data for 2000, 2005 and 2010. Applying two limit Tobit estimation method, this study demonstrated that both drought and submergence significantly affected rice production. Findings reveal that on average, a one percent increase in drought affected area at district level reduces Aman season rice production by approximately 1382 kilograms per household on average, annually. Similarly, a one percent increase in drought area reduces rainfed Aus season rice production by approximately 693 kilograms per household, on average, annually. Based on the findings the paper suggests disseminating and developing drought and submergence tolerant rice and also short duration rice varieties to minimize loss caused by drought and submergence in Aus and Aman rice seasons.