Contributions of cultivars, management and climate change to winter wheat yield in the North China Plain in the past three decades

• Cultivars renewal contributed to yield increase by 12.2-22.6% for 1980–2009.
• Fertilization management contributed to yield increase by 2.1-3.6% for 1980–2009.
• Climate change contributed to yield generally by −3.0 to 3.0% for 1980–2009.
• Temperature increase increased yield by 3.0-6.0% but reduced it by 12.0% for rainfed wheat.
• Decrease in solar radiation reduced yield by 3.0-12.0% across the stations.

The detailed field experiment data from 1980 to 2009 at four stations in the North China Plain (NCP), together with a crop simulation model, were used to disentangle the relative contributions of cultivars renewal, fertilization management and climate change to winter wheat yield, as well as the relative impacts of different climate variables on winter wheat yield, in the past three decades. We found that during 1980–2009 cultivars renewal contributed to yield increase by 12.2–22.6%; fertilization management contributed to yield increase by 2.1–3.6%; and climate change contributed to yield generally by −3.0–3.0%, however by −15.0% for rainfed wheat in southern part of the NCP. Modern cultivars and agronomic management played dominant roles in yield increase in the past three decades, nevertheless the estimated impacts of climate change on yield accounted for as large as −23.8–25.0% of observed yield trends. During the study period, increase in temperature increased winter wheat yield by 3.0–6.0% in northern part of the NCP, however reduced rainfed winter wheat yield by 9.0–12.0% in southern part of the NCP. Decrease in solar radiation reduced wheat yield by 3.0–12.0% across the stations. The impact of precipitation change on winter wheat yield was slight because there were no pronounced trends in precipitation. Our findings highlight that modern cultivars and agronomic management contributed dominantly to yield increase in the past three decades, nevertheless the impacts of climate change were large enough in some areas to affect a significant portion of observed yield trends in the NCP.