AlomySys: Modelling black-grass (Alopecurus myosuroides Huds.) germination and emergence, in interaction with seed characteristics, tillage and soil climate: II. Evaluation

Weed emergence models are increasingly necessary to evaluate and design cropping systems. The model AlomySys was developed for a frequent and harmful weed, i.e. Alopecurus myosuroides Huds. [Colbach, N., Dürr, C., Roger-Estrade, J., Caneill, J., 2005a. How to model the effects of farming practices on weed emergence. Weed Res. 45, 2–17; Colbach, N., Dürr, C., Roger-Estrade, J., Chauvel, B., Caneill, J., 2005b. AlomySys: modelling blackgrass (Alopecurus myosuroides Huds.) germination and emergence, in interaction with seed characteristics, tillage and soil climate. I. Construction. Eur. J. Agronomy] and is based on sub-models predicting (a) soil environment (climate, structure) resulting from the cropping system and external climate, (b) vertical soil seed distribution after tillage, and (c) seed survival, dormancy, germination and pre-emergent growth depending on soil environment, seed depth, characteristics and past history. In the present paper, the model was evaluated by comparing its simulated output to independent field observations, as a function of sowing/tillage date, seed depth, seed history and characteristics, soil climate and soil structure. The evaluation showed that the survival of the seed bank in top layers was systematically overestimated. In addition, some minor aspects were identified for future improvements, such as the pre-emergent seedling mortality in very compacted soil structures or germination rates of seeds that had not been previously stimulated by light. Despite these few shortcomings, the model simulates the timing and relative importance of the emergence flushes very well; in addition, the actual emerged seedling densities are usually predicted satisfactorily. Consequently, the model can be used to simulate the effects of cropping systems on black-grass emergence.