Simulation of biomass yield of regular and chilling tolerant Miscanthus cultivars and reed canary grass in different climates of Europe

• MiscanFor model was tested for Miscanthus yield under current and future climates.
• MiscanFor was also parameterized for reed canary grass (RCG) biomass yield.
• Chilling tolerant Miscanthus cultivars would produce higher yield throughout Europe.
• Those cultivars could out-compete RCG yield in many north European regions.

Miscanthus and reed canary grass (RCG) are C4 and C3 perennial grasses which are popular in Europe as energy crops. Although Miscanthus is relatively chilling tolerant compared to other C4 species, its production in northern Europe is still constrained by cold temperature. A more chilling tolerant Miscanthus cultivar which can emerge early in the spring would utilize more solar radiation and produce higher biomass yields. In this study, using MiscanFor model, we estimated potential biomass yield of Miscanthus in current and future climates with the assumption that breeding would provide a chilling tolerant Miscanthus cultivar with a base temperature (BT) of 5 °C while currently the model applies a BT of 10 °C. Also, RCG biomass yield was simulated with the MiscanFor model parameterized for RCG. The results suggest that chilling tolerant cultivars of Miscanthus would produce higher biomass yield throughout Europe in the current climate but the benefit of increased chilling tolerant cultivars will be smaller in the future. Although predicted biomass yield of Miscanthus was considerably lower than RCG in northern Europe in the current climate, more chilling tolerant cultivars of Miscanthus could out-compete RCG yield in many north European regions.