Effects of soil erosion on long-term soil productivity in the black soil region of northeastern China

China's northeastern Black Soil Region, one of the country's most important crop production areas, has been seriously affected by soil erosion. This study evaluated the effects of soil erosion on the long-term productivity of this region. We used a modified productivity index (MPI) model (MPI is a number between 0 and 1, with 1 indicating highest productivity) to assess the current effects of soil erosion on soil productivity, as well as to predict long-term change in productivity. Samples from 21 black soil profiles yielded varying MPI values, although most MPI values were indicative of moderate productivity. Organic matter content and available water capacity impact MPI values in the region, whereas soil clay content and pH were less important. Overall, organic matter content and available water capacity of soil profiles decreased consistently as depth of erosion increased. Modeling indicated that MPI in the region will decrease by 0.0052 for each centimeter of topsoil eroded; this rate represents 1% of the current average MPI for the study area. The model predicts a 9.6% productivity reduction over 100 years and a 48.3% reduction over 500 years.

► The performance of MPI model was validated.
► The effects of soil erosion on soil productivity were predicted.
► The MPI was able to explain about 72% of the variations of perennial soybean yields.
► MPI in the region will decrease by 1% for each centimeter of topsoil eroded.
► 9.6% of black soil productivity reduction over 100 years under current erosion rate.