کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4676729 1347780 2006 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A Bayesian probabilistic framework for avalanche modelling based on observations
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات علوم زمین و سیاره ای (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A Bayesian probabilistic framework for avalanche modelling based on observations
چکیده انگلیسی

Applied avalanche models are based on parameters which cannot be measured directly. As a consequence, these models are associated with large uncertainties, which must be addressed in risk assessment. To this end, we present an integral probabilistic framework for the modelling of avalanche hazards. The framework is based on a deterministic dynamic avalanche model, which is combined with an explicit representation of the different parameter uncertainties. The probability distribution of these uncertainties is then determined from observations of avalanches in the area under investigation through Bayesian inference. This framework facilitates the consistent combination of physical and empirical avalanche models with the available observations and expert knowledge. The resulting probabilistic spatial model can serve as a basis for hazard maping and spatial risk assessment. In this paper, the new model is applied to a case study in a test area located in the Swiss Alps.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Cold Regions Science and Technology - Volume 46, Issue 3, December 2006, Pages 192–203
نویسندگان
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