The historical seismicity and prediction of ground motion in northeast Mexico

This work constitutes the first attempt to understand the seismic hazard in northeast Mexico. We present a compilation of regional seismicity in northeast Mexico (24-31°N, 97-106°W), finding 148 earthquakes for the 1787-2006 period. The study area lies within three morphotectonic provinces: Basin, Range, and Rio Grande rift; Sierra Madre Oriental; and Gulf coastal plain. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps were computed for three different scenarios: 1928 Parral, Chihuahua (MW = 6.5); 1931 Valentine, Texas (MW = 6.4); and a hypothetical earthquake located in central Coahuila. Ground motion values were computed using attenuation relations developed for central and eastern North America and the Basin and Range provinces. The earthquake in central Coahuila is considered a critical scenario for the main cities of northeast Mexico. The damage associated with this hypothetical earthquake could be severe because most buildings were constructed without seismic criteria. The expected PGA values in Monterrey, Saltillo, and Monclova are between 30 and 70 cm/s2. This earthquake might also produce or trigger significant landslides and rock falls in the Sierra Madre Oriental, where several cities are located on the mountain range.