A finite-element simulation of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and implications for numerical earthquake prediction

:The dynamic process of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is simulated by finite-element method (FEM), and the results suggest that we may be able to estimate the occurrence time, location, and magnitude of similar earthquakes in the future. Thus a numerical earthquake prediction (NEP) program is proposed; the reliability of it is dependent on its gradual refinement and the parameters used in the models.