کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4978354 1452265 2016 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
An ecological risk assessment for managing and predicting trophic shifts in estuarine ecosystems using a Bayesian network
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی ریسک زیست محیطی برای مدیریت و پیش بینی تغییرات طوفیک در اکوسیستم های استوایی با استفاده از یک شبکه بیزی
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزار
چکیده انگلیسی
Estuaries are dynamic systems at the transition between freshwater and marine ecosystems. In this study, a spatially and temporally explicit Bayesian network (BN) was developed for a tidally connected estuary in southeastern Australia. The BN provides an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for the probability of a shift to a eutrophied state based on markers of pelagic and benthic primary production. The model was created to provide an initial framework of system knowledge based on empirical data, with the intention that the model and its linkages be iteratively developed as more information becomes available. The BN was investigated for its potential to predict trophic shifts and provide a framework for evidence-based decision making. Model assessment was conducted through both sensitivity analysis and scenario tests. Through evaluation and updating, the BN can provide information on the key nutrients and bio-physical mechanisms regulating changes in trophic state in estuarine ecosystems.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 85, November 2016, Pages 202-216
نویسندگان
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