کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5055356 | 1371489 | 2009 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper develops a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate sources of accelerated growth and structural transformation. It goes beyond stylized and aggregate general equilibrium models by examining country-specific growth options to reach middle income country (MIC) status. We first examine a set of countries that have successfully transformed their economies to inform model and scenario building. We then simulate potentials and trade-offs of selected sector- and factor-specific growth paths for Ghana. Results show that no individual sector's growth acceleration is sufficient for Ghana to reach MIC status by 2015. Manufacturing growth is constrained by its high dependency on agricultural inputs indicating the need for diversification. Services can support rather than drive economy-wide growth. Agriculture must remain the mainstay of economy-wide growth. While this will delay structural change in sectoral composition, it demonstrates that emphasizing agriculture is a viable option for some countries to reach MIC status.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 26, Issue 2, March 2009, Pages 514-525
Journal: Economic Modelling - Volume 26, Issue 2, March 2009, Pages 514-525
نویسندگان
Clemens Breisinger, Xinshen Diao, James Thurlow,